tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Newark via Detroit: arrives on time 65%

  1. 06:00 PHX → 12:48 DTW
    DL 947 · Delta · 3h 48m · 91% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:10 DTW → 15:59 EWR
    DL 2573 · Delta · 1h 49m · 71% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip6h 59mPHX 06:00 to EWR 15:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.