tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Memphis via Detroit: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:00 PHX → 12:48 DTW
    DL 947 · Delta · 3h 48m · 91% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 23m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:11 DTW → 17:19 MEM
    DL 4007 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 08m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 158 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 23m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip9h 19mPHX 06:00 to MEM 17:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.