tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Newark via Minneapolis: arrives on time 85%

  1. 23:59 SEA → 05:17 MSP
    DL 953 · Delta · 3h 18m · 91% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 53m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:10 MSP → 10:49 EWR +1 day
    DL 2864 · Delta · 2h 42m · 89% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 68 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 53m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip7h 53mSEA 23:59 to EWR 10:49, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.