tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Asheville via Atlanta: arrives on time 44%

  1. 16:00 LGA → 18:48 ATL
    DL 969 · Delta · 2h 48m · 70% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:37 ATL → 20:41 AVL
    DL 3071 · Delta · 1h 04m · 80% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 41mLGA 16:00 to AVL 20:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.