tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Dulles via Atlanta: arrives on time 53%

  1. 18:59 LGA → 21:40 ATL
    DL 970 · Delta · 2h 41m · 66% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:53 ATL → 00:44 IAD +1 day
    DL 2549 · Delta · 1h 51m · 75% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 45mLGA 18:59 to IAD 00:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.