tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 70%

  1. 15:00 LGA → 17:53 ATL
    DL 974 · Delta · 2h 53m · 81% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 22m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:15 ATL → 22:17 MDW
    DL 1076 · Delta · 2h 02m · 77% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 157 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 22m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip8h 17mLGA 15:00 to MDW 22:17, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.