tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Houston via Atlanta: arrives on time 56%

  1. 11:59 LGA → 14:20 ATL
    DL 990 · Delta · 2h 21m · 83% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:11 ATL → 16:23 HOU
    DL 2381 · Delta · 2h 14m · 81% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 26mLGA 11:59 to HOU 16:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.