tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 80%

  1. 13:00 LGA → 15:26 ATL
    DL 994 · Delta · 2h 27m · 82% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 33m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ATL → 19:24 SDF
    DL 2831 · Delta · 1h 25m · 84% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 108 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 33m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 24mLGA 13:00 to SDF 19:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.