tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Chattanooga via Detroit: arrives on time 52%

  1. 17:00 LGA → 19:15 DTW
    DL 999 · Delta · 2h 15m · 74% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:02 CHA
    DL 4894 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 52m · 78% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 02mLGA 17:00 to CHA 22:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.