tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Memphis via Detroit: arrives on time 46%

  1. 17:00 LGA → 19:15 DTW
    DL 999 · Delta · 2h 15m · 74% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 DTW → 21:04 MEM
    DL 1230 · Delta · 1h 59m · 79% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 04mLGA 17:00 to MEM 21:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.