tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Dulles via Detroit: arrives on time 58%

  1. 17:00 LGA → 19:15 DTW
    DL 999 · Delta · 2h 15m · 74% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 23m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:38 DTW → 23:14 IAD
    DL 3988 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 98 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 23m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 14mLGA 17:00 to IAD 23:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.