tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Everett via San Francisco: arrives on time 42%

  1. 14:02 PHX → 16:21 SFO
    F9 1191 · Frontier · 2h 16m · 64% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 46m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 20:07 SFO → 22:12 PAE
    AS 2083 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 05m · 46% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 136 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 46m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip8h 10mPHX 14:02 to PAE 22:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.