tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Raleigh/Durham via Philadelphia: arrives on time 55%

  1. 22:20 LAS → 06:10 PHL
    F9 1602 · Frontier · 4h 50m · 55% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:20 PHL → 08:45 RDU +1 day
    F9 2059 · Frontier · 1h 28m · 85% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip7h 28mLAS 22:20 to RDU 08:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.