tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Reno via Las Vegas: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:51 SFO → 17:39 LAS
    F9 1850 · Frontier · 1h 49m · 69% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 LAS → 20:02 RNO
    F9 4241 · Frontier · 1h 32m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 11mSFO 15:51 to RNO 20:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.