tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 47%

  1. 07:00 TPA → 09:01 ATL
    F9 1853 · Frontier · 2h 01m · 74% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:05 ATL → 11:07 MDW
    F9 2779 · Frontier · 2h 04m · 64% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 09mTPA 07:00 to MDW 11:07, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.