tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tampa via Atlanta: arrives on time 60%

  1. 12:11 MDW → 15:13 ATL
    F9 2144 · Frontier · 2h 02m · 68% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 01m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:14 ATL → 18:51 TPA
    F9 2912 · Frontier · 1h 38m · 66% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 76 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 01m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 41mMDW 12:11 to TPA 18:51, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.