tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Las Vegas via Tampa: arrives on time 54%

  1. 18:33 PHL → 21:27 TPA
    F9 2269 · Frontier · 2h 52m · 59% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 TPA → 00:19 LAS +1 day
    F9 1257 · Frontier · 4h 39m · 79% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip8h 46mPHL 18:33 to LAS 00:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.