tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Santa Rosa via Seattle: arrives on time 54%

  1. 16:04 ONT → 18:58 SEA
    F9 2275 · Frontier · 2h 54m · 80% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 20:44 SEA → 22:51 STS
    AS 3410 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 2h 07m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 46m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 47mONT 16:04 to STS 22:51, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.