tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Philadelphia via Atlanta: arrives on time 38%

  1. 06:00 MDW → 09:19 ATL
    F9 2292 · Frontier · 2h 17m · 71% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:10 ATL → 12:22 PHL
    F9 2298 · Frontier · 2h 13m · 68% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 23mMDW 06:00 to PHL 12:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.