tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Hebron via Atlanta: arrives on time 45%

  1. 06:00 MDW → 09:19 ATL
    F9 2292 · Frontier · 2h 17m · 71% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:14 ATL → 11:47 CVG
    F9 4771 · Frontier · 1h 32m · 74% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 46mMDW 06:00 to CVG 11:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.