tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 42%

  1. 06:30 PHL → 09:05 ATL
    F9 2551 · Frontier · 2h 35m · 71% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:05 ATL → 11:07 MDW
    F9 2779 · Frontier · 2h 04m · 64% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 39mPHL 06:30 to MDW 11:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.