tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Tampa via Atlanta: arrives on time 47%

  1. 06:30 PHL → 09:05 ATL
    F9 2551 · Frontier · 2h 35m · 71% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:03 ATL → 11:40 TPA
    F9 3782 · Frontier · 1h 37m · 72% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 10mPHL 06:30 to TPA 11:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.