tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Madison via Atlanta: arrives on time 81%

  1. 23:30 PHX → 06:29 ATL
    F9 2608 · Frontier · 3h 54m · 69% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:20 ATL → 10:22 MSN +1 day
    DL 2681 · Delta · 2h 04m · 88% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 81 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 51m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip8h 54mPHX 23:30 to MSN 10:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.