tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 60%

  1. 23:30 PHX → 06:29 ATL
    F9 2608 · Frontier · 3h 54m · 69% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 36m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:05 ATL → 11:07 MDW +1 day
    F9 2779 · Frontier · 2h 04m · 64% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 171 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 36m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip9h 39mPHX 23:30 to MDW 11:07, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.