tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Newark via Atlanta: arrives on time 28%

  1. 14:24 MSP → 18:12 ATL
    F9 3046 · Frontier · 2h 48m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:04 ATL → 21:29 EWR
    F9 1158 · Frontier · 2h 25m · 66% on time, 4.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (4.7% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip6h 05mMSP 14:24 to EWR 21:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.