tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 16%

  1. 18:29 JAX → 20:12 ATL
    F9 3083 · Frontier · 1h 43m · 38% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ATL → 22:03 MDW
    F9 2291 · Frontier · 2h 04m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection24%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 76% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (24%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 35mJAX 18:29 to MDW 22:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.