tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Newark via Atlanta: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:16 MCI → 21:43 ATL
    F9 3500 · Frontier · 2h 21m · 60% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 01:05 EWR +1 day
    F9 4602 · Frontier · 2h 25m · 56% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 49mMCI 18:16 to EWR 01:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.