tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Islip via Baltimore: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:04 MCO → 20:35 BWI
    F9 4004 · Frontier · 2h 30m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 50m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:25 BWI → 23:35 ISP
    WN 4321 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 57% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 50m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 36mMCO 18:04 to ISP 23:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.