tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 21%

  1. 17:24 MCO → 19:25 ATL
    F9 4025 · Frontier · 2h 01m · 58% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:22 ATL → 22:43 LGA
    F9 3288 · Frontier · 2h 21m · 41% on time, 8.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (8.0% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip5h 19mMCO 17:24 to LGA 22:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.