Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Madison → Phoenix via Denver: arrives on time 46%
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19:57 MSN → 21:32 DENF9 4061 · Frontier · 2h 36m · 70% on time, 2.2% cancelled
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1h 04m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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22:36 DEN → 23:32 PHXF9 4753 · Frontier · 1h 55m · 68% on time, 0.6% cancelled
Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 34mMSN 19:57 to PHX 23:32, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.