tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dulles via Las Vegas: arrives on time 47%

  1. 22:27 PHX → 23:38 LAS
    F9 4113 · Frontier · 1h 12m · 69% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 00:46 LAS → 08:20 IAD +1 day
    F9 4278 · Frontier · 4h 35m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 54mPHX 22:27 to IAD 08:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.