tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:06 STL → 20:07 ATL
    F9 4474 · Frontier · 2h 01m · 61% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ATL → 22:03 MDW
    F9 2291 · Frontier · 2h 04m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 58mSTL 17:06 to MDW 22:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.