tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Dulles via Atlanta: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:06 STL → 20:07 ATL
    F9 4474 · Frontier · 2h 01m · 61% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:16 ATL → 23:09 IAD
    F9 3692 · Frontier · 1h 53m · 56% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 03mSTL 17:06 to IAD 23:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.