tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Charlotte Amalie via Atlanta: arrives on time 56%

  1. 07:30 IAD → 09:44 ATL
    F9 4707 · Frontier · 2h 14m · 71% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 11:35 ATL → 15:21 STT
    DL 1883 · Delta · 3h 46m · 74% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 51m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip7h 51mIAD 07:30 to STT 15:21, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.