tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Chicago via Newark: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:55 DCA → 19:28 EWR
    UA 4180 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 33m · 57% on time, 11.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:19 EWR → 22:06 ORD
    UA 546 · United · 2h 47m · 69% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (11.4% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 11mDCA 17:55 to ORD 22:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.