tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Louisville via Newark: arrives on time 24%

  1. 17:55 DCA → 19:28 EWR
    UA 4180 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 33m · 57% on time, 11.4% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 EWR → 22:50 SDF
    UA 3512 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 56% on time, 13.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (11.4% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (13.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip4h 55mDCA 17:55 to SDF 22:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.