tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Asheville → Denver via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 17:43 AVL → 19:05 ORD
    UA 4189 · United, flown by GoJet · 2h 22m · 63% on time, 4.9% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:03 ORD → 22:04 DEN
    UA 329 · United · 3h 01m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Asheville). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (4.9% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 21mAVL 17:43 to DEN 22:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.