tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:54 BUF → 14:55 ORD
    UA 4381 · United, flown by GoJet · 2h 01m · 73% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:49 ORD → 17:40 BNA
    UA 5665 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 58% on time, 4.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (4.6% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 46mBUF 13:54 to BNA 17:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.