tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Dulles via Chicago: arrives on time 48%

  1. 13:54 BUF → 14:55 ORD
    UA 4381 · United, flown by GoJet · 2h 01m · 73% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:53 ORD → 19:02 IAD
    UA 2437 · United · 2h 09m · 71% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 08mBUF 13:54 to IAD 19:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.