tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 13:54 BUF → 14:55 ORD
    UA 4381 · United, flown by GoJet · 2h 01m · 73% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:47 ORD → 18:20 LAX
    UA 576 · United · 4h 33m · 76% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 26mBUF 13:54 to LAX 18:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.