tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Appleton → Denver via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:44 ATW → 17:05 ORD
    UA 4391 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 21m · 60% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:17 ORD → 20:22 DEN
    UA 1974 · United · 3h 05m · 58% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Appleton). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 38mATW 15:44 to DEN 20:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.