tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Denver via Newark: arrives on time 28%

  1. 16:30 DCA → 18:03 EWR
    UA 4401 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 33m · 56% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:49 EWR → 21:18 DEN
    UA 407 · United · 4h 29m · 69% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 48mDCA 16:30 to DEN 21:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.