tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Traverse City via Washington: arrives on time 71%

  1. 06:30 EWR → 07:46 DCA
    UA 4437 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 16m · 84% on time, 3.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 34m layover in Washington (DCA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 11:20 DCA → 13:27 TVC
    AA 4138 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 07m · 77% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 124 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 34m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (3.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 57mEWR 06:30 to TVC 13:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.