tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Madison via Washington: arrives on time 86%

  1. 06:30 EWR → 07:46 DCA
    UA 4437 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 16m · 84% on time, 3.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 04m layover in Washington (DCA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:50 DCA → 12:13 MSN
    AA 4523 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 23m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 94 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 04m layover.
Arrives on time86%First flight not cancelled (3.1% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip6h 43mEWR 06:30 to MSN 12:13, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.