tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Atlanta via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 15:07 FSD → 17:05 ORD
    UA 4441 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 58m · 70% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 ORD → 21:41 ATL
    UA 1398 · United · 2h 21m · 58% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Sioux Falls). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 34mFSD 15:07 to ATL 21:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.