Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
St Louis → New York via Dulles: arrives on time 49%
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12:55 STL → 16:07 IADUA 4454 · United, flown by GoJet · 2h 12m · 72% on time, 1.1% cancelled
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1h 08m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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17:15 IAD → 18:42 LGAUA 4077 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 27m · 77% on time, 13.9% cancelled
Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (13.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 47mSTL 12:55 to LGA 18:42, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.