tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 18:28 FSD → 20:26 ORD
    UA 4467 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 58m · 60% on time, 8.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 ORD → 23:10 MSP
    UA 1131 · United · 1h 42m · 59% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (8.4% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 42mFSD 18:28 to MSP 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.