tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Denver via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 18:28 FSD → 20:26 ORD
    UA 4467 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 58m · 60% on time, 8.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 24m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 ORD → 23:48 DEN
    UA 377 · United · 2h 58m · 72% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Sioux Falls). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (8.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 20mFSD 18:28 to DEN 23:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.