tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 27%

  1. 15:30 EWR → 16:57 DCA
    UA 4486 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 27m · 42% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:10 DCA → 19:32 ORD
    UA 2148 · United · 2h 22m · 51% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 02mEWR 15:30 to ORD 19:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.