tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Francisco via Washington: arrives on time 23%

  1. 15:30 EWR → 16:57 DCA
    UA 4486 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 27m · 42% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 DCA → 20:55 SFO
    UA 368 · United · 5h 56m · 55% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip8h 25mEWR 15:30 to SFO 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.